A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
